35th Week Topic: El Niño/La Niña and Global Maritime Transportation

The El Niño and La Niña climate cycles have a significant impact on regional precipitation and temperature, closely linked to the frequency of tropical cyclones in the northwest Pacific as well. Their effects on global dry bulk trade and shipping often spark market discussions. El Niño and La Niña phenomena alternate, and with the conclusion of this year's El Niño, predictions suggest a strong La Niña event in the fourth quarter, prompting the shipping industry to consider the potential typical impacts of La Niña on shipping over the next year.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate cycle occurring in the Pacific, characterised by alternating "warm and dry" El Niño phases and "cold and wet" La Niña phases, which alter global temperatures and rainfall. In recent years, extreme El Niño and La Niña events have become more common, with the duration of transitional moderate years significantly shortening, possibly linked to the increase in greenhouse gases. The drought caused by the 2023 El Niño has led to decreased agricultural yields in Argentina and much of the United States, as well as lower water levels in the Mississippi River, resulting in a year-on-year reduction in food loading volumes of 45% and 25%, respectively. Last year's severe El Niño also caused drought in the Panama Canal, affecting the number of vessels passing through.

La Niña can produce a wide array of complex impacts on weather across the Pacific and beyond. Firstly, La Niña tends to increase the number of tropical cyclones in the western Pacific, and in Southeast Asia and eastern Australia, it is typically associated with wetter weather. The previous La Niña phase brought severe flooding to Australia and Indonesia, directly disrupting coal mining, rail transport, and vessel loading. However, the wetter conditions can also aid in bountiful harvests and exports.

On the other side of the Pacific, La Niña usually brings wetter weather to certain regions of Brazil, although the effects can be complex. During the last La Niña episode, heavy rainfall disrupted iron ore production and transport, resulting in an 11.3% year-on-year decline in exports in the first quarter of 2022, and some regions faced crop failures due to flooding.

La Niña also affects demand for dry bulk commodities, particularly coal, at specific times and in certain areas. Notably, winters during La Niña in Northern China, Japan, and South Korea may become colder and drier, potentially leading to reduced reservoir levels and diminished hydropower generation, while heating demand increases due to the cold. This situation may lead to a reliance on imported coal, likely driving up the demand for coal measured in ton- mile.

Historically, La Niña has significantly influenced regional markets and demand for dry bulk goods, although this influence arises from a myriad of complex factors rather than a single cause, and is closely related to other dynamic elements, including geopolitics, commodity prices, and shifts in trade flows.

36th Week Topic: Risks in Ocean Freight under FOB Trade 

As a major trading country, China may adopt the FOB model for more than 80% of its cross-border trade, under which the buyer and seller and the ship will face their own unique risks.

First of all, in order to protect the seller's rights in FOB trade, international law allows the seller to implement the right of stopping the goods in transit and the seller's right of control in cargo transport law. However, in most cases, the seller in FOB is not the party to the contract of carriage of goods, and it is more complicated or costly to make the ship cooperate with its right to operate. Sometimes when the seller handles the transportation of the goods, if the value of the goods falls significantly and is lower than the freight, the buyer may face the risk of rejecting the goods and not paying the freight, and the seller must face various claims from the shipowner.

In international trade, the buyer usually arranges the transportation of the goods, and the seller is responsible for loading the goods to the ship designated by the buyer at the port agreed by the two parties. In this process, the buyer usually entrusts an agent to handle the port of loading for him, and the seller delivers the goods to the same agent for convenience or according to the instructions of the buyer. And entrust it to handle the customs declaration of goods and other matters. In the case that there is an agency contract relationship between the agent and both the buyer and the seller and there is no clear agreement on which party the bill of lading should be delivered to, it often happens that the agent hands over the ship or the bill of lading entrusted by the ship to the buyer, which directly causes the seller to lose the control of the goods and face the great risk of being unable to recover the payment, and the agent will also face the compensation liability for its negligence.

Port of loading, when there is a ship waiting for goods under FOB trade mode, the demurrage resulting therefrom shall be borne by the seller; When there is a cargo ship, the additional port storage charges and storage charges arising therefrom shall be borne by the buyer. The loading and unloading efficiency of the port is also an important factor that the buyer and the seller need to agree on according to the actual situation, and it is also an important parameter for the ship to calculate the freight.

Under FOB trade mode, the seller undertakes the obligation to deliver the goods to the designated loading port within the specified time limit, and is responsible for loading the goods onto the ship at the loading port. The buyer arranges the ship and insurance for the transportation of the goods. In order to ensure the safe delivery of goods, shippers generally put forward a variety of requirements for ships involved in the voyage of cargo transport, such as ship age, non-sensitive ships, seaworthy goods are of course the most basic requirements, but also need to be recognized ships can catch up with the agreed date of loading. Sometimes when the rental level of the ship rises significantly, the buyer will face a high cost of chartering the ship. Buyers in the maritime trade market generally agree on transportation tasks with ship operators in the market according to freight tasks and market trends, and try to avoid the risk of price fluctuations caused by market fluctuations.

Ships play an absolutely important role in the international transport of goods, as trade buyers and sellers, all want their trade execution to be smooth and safe, in addition to market reasons for some transaction risks, the biggest risk is from the sea and the ship itself. The ship may be unseaworthy, resulting in the loss of cargo; The inadequacy of the ship may cause damage to the cargo; The risk that inadequate ship management will result in claims for damage or shortfalls; The detention of the vessel by the PSC may result in the delay in the delivery of the cargo; Ships being blacklisted or sanctioned in transit will cause problems with the delivery of goods, and so on.

The hidden risks faced under FOB term also include the release of goods without presenting bills of lading caused by the buyer's handling of transportation, the Anti dated bills of lading, the invalidity of letter of credit, and the risk of non-payment of insurance events caused by lack of insurance. Finally, it is generally adopted in the market that knowing your clients is the most important, especially knowing the background of the ship.

37th Week Topic:The number of container imports from ports along the Atlantic coast of the United States has soared

Fearing a possible extensive scale port strike, American retailers brought forward imports ahead of the Christmas holiday. The latest figures show a record number of container imports at U.S. ports in July, as the contract between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and the American Maritime Union expires on September 30. Talks between the two sides remain deadlocked, and fears of a potential strike have affected the pace of imports. Some buyers have asked shippers for shipments in advance, which has directly boosted the number of containers entering the United States from June to September. In addition, there are some importers concerned that they may be affected by future tariff increases, and are weighing whether to bring forward some goods from China and other regions. Importers can be seen working to bring in as much cargo as possible before the impact of a port strike from Maine to Texas on the East Coast.

U.S. ports are expected to handle 2.31 million TEUs in September, up 14% from the same period last year as data reported. The data also showed throughput in August rose 20.9 percent to 2.37 million TEUs over the same period. It reached 2.32 million TEUs in July, up 21% from the same period last year. This is the highest number of container imports at US ports in the historical data for July. Overall, throughput is estimated to reach 24.9 million TEUs in 2024, up 12.3% from last year.

A key committee of the International Longshoremen's Association ie. ILA, which represents longshoremen along the East Coast and Gulf Coast, announced their unanimous support for the Oct. first strike. On Thursday, September 5, 300 members of the International Longshoremen's Association, representing wage standards, concluded their meeting in New Jersey with unanimous support for union President Harold Daggett's call for stevedores to strike at container ports along the Atlantic coast of the United States. At the same time, the American Maritime Union said it is committed to resuming negotiations with the ILA before the current agreement expires. "We hope that ILA will reopen the dialogue and share its current contractual requirements in order to work together to reach a new agreement." The National Retail Federation said in a statement that U.S. East Coast container ports need to operate at full capacity at this critical time ahead of the Christmas holidays.

Obviously a strike would be a huge blow to the normal global supply chain, the global economy would be challenged by a possible strike, and it would be another blow to the US economy at a time when inflation is finally coming down and the Federal Reserve is preparing to cut interest rates.

38th Week Topic: Tanker Marine Market Volatility Maze

Recently, we have seen a continuous downward adjustment in the global shipping stock market, almost returning to the low level at the end of last year, especially the stocks of listed oil tanker shipping companies have continued to plummet rapidly recently, and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation and China Merchants Energy Shipping (VLCC is the main type of the listed company) have been following the European and American shipping market decline in the latest week. This does not seem to be in harmony with the booming new shipbuilding market. The tanker market experienced a very contradictory phenomenon during the recent tortuous summer holidays.

The tanker shipping market is showing a bottom consolidation after a sustained decline over the summer, with Oslo-listed Hunter Group revealing that two of its long-term charters of very large tankers are having a tough time, the investment firm said. The spot price of the two VLCCS they chartered averaged $32,700 per day, while the cost of chartering the two vessels for three years was $51,750 per day, resulting in a loss of $1.143 million for each vessel every 30 days.

The planned increase in output by Opec + major oil producers will be delayed by another two months due to concerns about the state of the global economy. The eight members, including Saudi Arabia and Russia, said the phased increase would not begin until December but could be delayed again.

While tanker ship prices have been strong, researchers said that as the crude oil freight market bottomed out, tanker sellers are willing to hold out for higher tanker prices. Shareholders in listed tanker companies are also showing confidence in future markets, with New York-listed Scorpio Tankers continuing to make share buybacks a top priority in capital allocation, spending $175m to buy back 2.24m shares in the past six weeks in an effort to close the gap to net asset value. The firm, led by Emanuele lauro, said in its latest update after the close in early September that it had bought the stock at an average price of $72.45. The product tanker giant disclosed in August, when it reported second-quarter results, that it had used up nearly half of its authorized $400 million buyback fund. This undoubtedly shows that the shipowner has full confidence in the future tanker market.

Recently, tanker market analysts said that the selling of Danish oil products tanker Torm shares, possibly due to seasonal factors affecting charter rates, seems excessive and shortsighted.

With vessels needed for refineries to reopen in October, freight rates have begun to soar, with rates for the largest tankers hitting $34,200 a day from last week, up nearly 26 percent from the previous downturn, according to industry data.

Jonathan Staubo, a tanker consultant, believes that the fundamentals for tanker profitability have always been there. Fearnleys consultant Jonathan Staubo believes tanker rates were too low this summer in terms of the fundamental supply and demand balance and says all the conditions will be in place for an earnings pick-up later this year, with ton miles reaching record levels.

In Africa, crude oil production will grow faster than the continent's refining capacity, which means crude oil will be exported from Africa. In South America, where refining advancements have failed to keep pace with the continent's growing oil production, the crude oil tanker industry stands to benefit. And South America faces demand challenges on the back of crude oil supply growth in Argentina, Guyana and Suriname.

39th Week Topic: The rescue arrangement for a burning oil tanker in the Red Sea has entered the offensive phase

Geopolitical conflict is the biggest threat to the functioning of global shipping routes, and the Houthi attacked on the Greek oil tanker Sounion in late August highlighted the major

geopolitical threats to shipping and the Marine environment, with major disputes between countries more likely to lead to the disruption of maritime trade.

On 21 September, more than a month after the attack on the tanker Sounion in the Red Sea, maritime salvage experts began the second phase of a salvage towing operation, prompted

by the ship's insurance company. The ill-fated oil tanker Sounion was first towed away from the danger zone after repeated attacks by the Houthis, and it could take weeks to extinguish sporadic open fires on its deck.

The tanker was carrying oil from Iraq to Greece on its way through the Red Sea to the Suez Canal when it was attacked on Aug. 21. The crew abandoned ship and left safely hours after the

attack. Members of the Yemeni armed group later boarded the ship and detonated explosives on the deck, igniting several open fires on the deck. The cargo ship Suez is still burning.

On September 14th the 163,800 DWT Sounion (built in 2006 and eventually owned by Delta Tankers) was moved further north to safer waters in the Red Sea, the first stage of emergency

measures taken by the maritime rescue company to avoid further trouble from the Houthis. Avoid devastating blows to the fragile Marine environment of the Red Sea. In this safe water

specialist teams are focusing on putting out the flames and specialist equipment has arrived to prevent further explosions of the gas that has built up in the cargo hold. Fortunately,

although the tanker was attacked three times by the Houthis, all the missiles hit the starboard side, damaging the engine room and starting a fire, the Houthis also boarded the deck and

set fire to it, as the flames had not yet reached the cargo on board, there was no imminent structural risk of the ship sinking or exploding, and miraculously nearly 1 million barrels of Iraqicrude oil did not spill. The crude cargo is said to be owned by Greek refiner Motor Oil.On 21 September, three warships escorted the 10,000-horsepower Aigaion Pelagos (built in 2010) and two other salvage vessels to the tanker Sounion. The flotilla of European Union

warships and salvage vessels began towing the damaged and burning tanker in the Red Sea to safer waters. It may be near the Suez Canal, transferring crude oil on board ships by ship

to-ship. This is the second stage of rescue work since emergency measures were taken to finally save the burning tanker, take comprehensive fire-fighting measures and prevent theleakage of cargo oil to prevent the occurrence of Marine environmental disasters.In order to avoid a potential Marine environmental disaster in the Red Sea region, the salvage work of the SOUNIO tanker was crucial, and EUNAVFOR Aspides actively participated in this

complex salvage operation, thanks to the efforts of the insurance company and various parties.

40th Week Topic: Two Chinese-managed VLCC tankers on US OFAC sanctions list

The United States has imposed new sanctions on Hezbollah and Iran, targeting a Syrian shipping giant for illegal shipments. Two very large oil tankers and their Chinese ship managers and registered owners were also added to the latest sanctions list.

In late September, the Treasury Department imposed sanctions on several entities and nine ships, including those belonging to a Syrian shipowner, for trade or shipping links with Iran and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. Us officials said four of the vessels targeted by the latest sanctions were part of the army of Abdul Jalil Mallah in Syria. According to the U.S. Treasury Department, Abdul Jalil Mara is a Syrian illegal shipping magnate who has helped Iran and its proxies create a variety of malign and harmful operations. The U.S. Treasury Department also placed his brother, Luay al-Mallah, on the sanctions list for his involvement in illegal maritime operations. At present, the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah is engaged in a fierce armed conflict with Israel, and the situation is tense.

The Mallah family's vessels are now listed by the U.S. Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control, including the 47,200 DWT finished product tanker Confidence P(built in 1999 and allegedly on an offshore oil storage mission). Also added to the OFAC list are the 8,955 DWT Queen Reem(built in 1997), the 3,481 DWT Rival(built in 1994) and the 113,000 DWT Tiyara(built in 2002).

The Mallah family was sanctioned by the United States in 2021 for supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' Quds Force and the Houthis. His brother, who runs Turkey-based Oryx Denizcilik, is now accused of using the family boat for illegal cooperation and illegal trade with a Houthi finance official, Sa 'id al-Jamal. In 2021, Luay al-Mallah managed a shipment for said al-Jamal. In 2021, Saeed Jamal's network used Nova and Tiyara to facilitate illicit trade between Iran and Syria.

Bradley Smith, the Treasury Department's acting under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said Iran relies on the Quds Force and Hezbollah for illegal sales of oil and liquefied petroleum gas to fund terrorist proxies. The U.S. Treasury Department is committed to sanctioning the networks of shippers, brokers and buyers that facilitate these agents.

The Treasury Department also imposed sanctions on China's Xinghai Ship Management Company and three vessels it manages. These include the 309,000 DWT Eternal Success tanker (built in 2005), a VLCC that was recently accused by the U.S. Treasury Department in July of facilitating illegal trade by simulating AIS data to conceal its transfer of oil to another ship. Also added to the sanctions list is the 106,000 DWT product tanker Eternal 8 (built in 2002), which is accused of being involved in Iran-related cargo shipments. The 160,000 DWT SUEZMAX oil tanker Eternal Peace (built in 2004) is also on the sanctions list.

The Treasury also added two vessel-owning entities, Marshall Islands-registered Dragon Road and Hong Kong-based Tai Feng Hai Shipping, to OFAC's sanctions list. Dragon Road owns the 281,000 DWT tanker Serene 1 (built in 2000), which is accused of transporting Quds Force-controlled goods on behalf of Concepto Screen SAL Offshore, a company accused of having links to Hezbollah. For similar reasons, the 299,000 DWT Feng Tai (built in 2002) is also on the sanction list because of the same owner.

41st Week Topic: Seafarers Face 5 Years in Prison for Calling at Crimea Ports

A small general cargo ship visited the Russian-occupied Sevastopol in violation of Ukrainian law, and as a result the ship was seized by the port authorities in the Ukrainian port of Reni near the Danube River in early July 2024.

Crimea is a peninsula almost surrounded by the sea on the northern coast of the Black Sea, south of the main part of Ukraine and west of the main part of Russia, covering an area of about 27,000 square kilometers. On March 18, 2014, Russia de facto took over the Ukrainian territory of Crimea, creating the Crimean Federal District with two federal subjects, namely the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol.

According to HiFleet ship archives, the seized ship is a 42-year old 2,850 DWT general cargo ship, built in 1982 in a Belgian shipyard, the ship name USKO MFU, information shows that the ship's operating company and technical management company are from a Turkish company, the ship's final profit owner is not disclosed.

On September 25th Ukrainian authorities charged the ship's captain and second officer, who could face up to five years in prison, with violating its laws banning trade from Crimea. The captain, an undisclosed Azerbaijani citizen, was in command of the ship when it docked at a Ukrainian port in July.

The Ukrainian government in Kiev has vowed to prosecute all ships trading with Crimea and the newly Russian-controlled Black Sea ports, some of which were seized by Moscow after Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, and which ship some of the grain from the occupied territories.

Despite the laws enacted in Kiev, Ukraine, the market is always chasing high risk returns, and even in the face of sanctions or the possibility of conviction, these Black Sea ports in the occupied territories continue to export grain, and there is little the Ukrainian authorities can do about this trade. Driven by high yields, grain from the Russian-occupied territories is constantly sold and shipped to other parts of the world, mainly to the Middle East, a trade that has been booming because of super-cheap prices.

According to the relevant information, the Ukrainian authorities accused the ship of carrying thousands of tons of agricultural products to Turkey in Sevastopol in November 2023, in violation of its legal ban, resulting in the detention of the ship and the charges against the crew involved.

At the end of May, sources said the ship docked again in Sevastopol with its AIS system off to unload an unspecified cargo from Turkey.

The crew generally follows the command of the shipowner, and sometimes does not know about the docking of some particularly sensitive ports or areas because of blocked information. If the crew does not know and is unfortunately punished, this will cause the concern of the shipping industry.

42nd Week Topic: Russia Increases Attacks on Ships Calling at Ukrainian Ports in the Black Sea

On Monday, October 14, a general cargo ship flying the Saint Kitnives-flagged ship left a Ukrainian port for a Romanian port. The ship was hit by a Russian missile while docked at a Ukrainian port to load and unload cargo on October 6. The ship's owner lashed out at Moscow's claim that the ship was carrying weapons into Ukraine. The ship's owner said that despite Moscow's mistake in attacking the ship, it would continue to trade in Ukraine. The shipowner is headquartered in Piraeus, Greece. HiFleet ship archives show that the ship is a 6,912 DWT general cargo vessel built in 1992, the ship management company is Greek, registered owner in Marshall.

Similar attacks took place at least three more times in early October. On October 7, a 5,800 DWT Optima (built in 2008) was attacked in what may have been a Russian move to crack down on Ukraine's seaborne trade. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba wrote on his telegraph channel that the Palau-flagged ship arrived in Odessa early on Oct. 7 for loading. Oleh Kiper, governor of the Odessa region, confirmed the incident on his telegraph channel. Last Wednesday, Oct. 9, a Portuguese-managed container ship was damaged in a Russian missile strike in the Odessa region, the third casualty this week and the fifth in a month. Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Kuleba issued a statement on his telegraph channel identifying the ship as the Panamanian flagged 1,679-seat SHUI SPIRIT (built in 2000). The report did not elaborate on the extent of the damage, saying only that Russia had fired several ballistic missiles at Odessa's port infrastructure, killing five local residents.

For now, the attacks on ships in Ukrainian ports may also be related to competition for the Black Sea grain export trade. As of press time, Ukraine's cereal exports have increased by 27% compared to 2023, to nearly 27 million tons; Wheat exports increased 41 percent from 2023 to nearly 18.5 million tons. Its soybean exports were relatively flat. And Russian grain exports barely increased, with wheat falling by 1 million tons in 2023. Perhaps the Russian missile attack may have some impact on Ukraine's later grain exports, but the overall impact should not be too great.

The global economy could suffer losses of up to $50tn over five years if an extreme geopolitical conflict hit shipping routes and disrupted international trade, according to a study by Lloyd's of London. According to a worst-case scenario drawn up by Lloyd's and the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies, a superpower invasion threatening to block major shipping lanes would trigger a cascading and widespread global confrontation that could include cyber attacks, blockades and tit-for-tat sanctions.

43rd Week Topic: The Direction of Alternative Fuels in Shipping Remains Uncertain

44th Week Topic: The Complexities of the Global Tanker Market

The market shows that tanker owners are generally optimistic about looking forward to next year's tanker market, the major ship brokers said that the tanker market in 2025 should still be positive, but the acceleration of tanker new ship supply growth is expected to cloud the long-term outlook of the tanker market, for 2026 tanker market doubts are quietly spreading.

The market is always full of uncertainty, and last week, oil tanker stocks fell across the European and American stock markets because of concerns about the future of oil tankers. Frontline shares fell 3.2 per cent in Oslo, while Torm shares fell 4.4 per cent in Copenhagen. DNB Markets and Pareto Securities also cut their price targets on several oil tanker stocks. Other shipping stocks also fell in a broader market sell-off triggered by interest rate fears. The selling of tanker stocks began in Europe, possibly on weaker profit prospects, and spread to New York on Wednesday, but most other shipping stocks and the broader market followed suit. The losses were more pronounced for tanker companies than in other Shipping markets, with shares in Irish product tanker owner Ardmore Shipping down nearly 7 per cent, while Teekay Tankers fell more than 6 per cent in a single day.

Scorpio Tankers is optimistic about the outlook for product tankers, simply because crude tankers are exiting the clean oil market. Remember that rates have been under pressure since the summer as crude oil tankers have cleared their tanks to capture higher product cargo yields. Scorpio recently paid $89m for a 4.9 per cent stake in DHT Holdings, a New York-listed very large tanker specialist. The move is a strong indication of the company's confidence in the recovering market for large tankers. It was Scorpio Tankers' first direct investment outside of a product tanker in more than a decade, when it invested in a series of new LPG carriers that were later sold to Dorian LPG. The VLCC tanker was eventually sold to Peter Georgiopoulos' General Maritime.

The tanker segment is diverse, with spot rates for Afra tankers showing a split market, with the North Sea market soaring and the Caribbean volume falling. In terms of market data, the worldwide spot WS for routes from the UK to continental Europe was 145, up 18.4% from the same period last week.

The turbulence in the Red Sea has increased tanker tonnage nautical miles and increased the demand for tanker capacity, and its ups and downs have a greater impact on the market, coupled with the approach of the European winter, which is expected to increase energy demand. The current alternative to the Strait of Hormuz is working, as Saudi Arabia's VLCC port on the Red Sea, which avoids the Houthi threat and provides a route to the Mediterranean Sea from the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, has significantly increased its crude oil exports. Crude exports from the port are soaring, and the country uses the pipeline to ward off Houthi attacks on oil tankers passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Oil giant Saudi Aramco has boosted exports from the Red Sea port to 863,000 barrels per day so far this year, compared with just 572,000 barrels per day in the same period last year, according to oil trade flow data. Such pipelines reduce the use of oil tankers on the one hand, and increase the demand for oil tankers on the other hand, because of the increase in exports.

45th Week Topic: What Changes Will the Shipping Market Experience After Trump Reoccupies the White House?

On November 6, 2024, the United States election, which has attracted worldwide attention, was finally settled, and several rejoiced and several worried. Republican Trump defeated Democrat Harris by a clear margin to become the 47th president of the United States, and in 2016, Trump also defeated Hillary Clinton to become the 45th president of the United States.

When Donald Trump won the US presidential election, ushering in his presidential 2.0 era, the Republican Party also won control of the US Senate, giving it a rare hold on the presidency and both houses of Congress, as well as a Supreme Court. This means that the Republican Trump can show his strength and fully display his ideas and methods. Countries and regions that used to maintain close cooperation with the United States basically have to adapt to the new strategy and direction, and the world is most concerned about what impact it will have on the world. The first priority should be the big stick of tariffs, which will be implemented soon. The second is various troop withdrawals and retirements, and drastic cuts in government spending; The third is a vigorous revival of American manufacturing; The fourth is the implementation of tax cuts in the United States.

Former US President Donald Trump is set to return to the White House and his focus will turn to assembling a team to lead his administration. He has chosen highly respected figures in the shipping world during his 45 presidential terms, including Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross, a billionaire whose private equity empire has invested in shipping, and Transportation Secretary Elaine Chao, the daughter of New York shipowner James Chao, Former U.S. Maritime Administration official, and Maritime Administration Director Mark Busby, a Rear admiral who commanded the U.S. Navy's Military Sealift Command.

The shipping industry is wondering how the shipping market will change with Trump in the White House. According to the logical analysis, the first is that the tariff stick will directly impact the trans-oceanic commodity trade, especially for China's tariff policy, the container traffic volume and freight rate of the trans-Pacific and trans-Atlantic routes may be greatly adjusted, and the container traffic in Southeast Asia may rebound.

Trump's background is as a businessman, and the "America First" principle is likely to benefit U.S. exports of crude oil/gas and grain, benefiting energy transport shipping companies and Panamanian grain carriers. At the same time, the United States will find a way to end the Russian-Ukrainian war as soon as possible, and the reconstruction of Ukraine will be put on the agenda, which will be conducive to the prosperity of the Black Sea route for portable ships. After the end of the war between Russia and Ukraine, the United States will coordinate as soon as possible to quell the threat of the Houthi armed forces to the Red Sea, and the resumption of the Red Sea route will have a double blow to the container freight rate, then we may wake up to the fact that we may see more old containers dismantled.

The return of Trump has given the United States financial information, and has seen a sharp rise in the short term, while the shipping stock market has undergone a sector differentiation, among which the container shipping market has begun to correction, Maersk has led the decline of container stocks, and energy shipping companies have welcomed the return of Trump with open arms.

The international shipping market is most affected by international politics, which is not only driven by regional economic development, but also by inter-regional trade. The multi-stage development of the global supply chain is easily affected by the political wind.

46th Week Topic: Houthi Militia Red Sea Attacks Lead to $6 Billion Drop in Egyptian Revenue

In early November this year, the Houthis vowed that they would continue to hunt down ships they believe are linked to Israel, even if they have been sold to third-party interests, and vowed to maintain a blockade of the Red Sea. Yahya Sari, a spokesman for the Yemeni rebel group, said any attempt to bypass their blockade of Israeli trade by transferring the ships to a third party or by changing the ownership, flag or registration of the ships would be futile. The statement stressed that the Houthis will keep these ship assets on their target list. The Houthis have targeted a wide range of vessels, including not only those directly owned by Israel, the United States and the United Kingdom, but also those that trade with Israel and even those of companies that trade with Israel.

More than 100 ships have been attacked by the Houthis in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden since they began their military operation against Israel in Gaza in November. The Houthis have used missiles, air and sea drones and fired on commercial vessels from small boats. The Houthis have also sunk two commercial vessels in previous months, killing four sailors and seriously injuring two others. According to other media reports, the Houthis began using Russian satellite data as they expanded their attacks. The data was passed to the Houthis in Yemen through members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Ships diverted from the Red Sea due to Houthi attacks have caused serious economic losses to Egypt. According to Egyptian media reports, the country's Foreign Minister, Badr Abdel Aati, said that the drastic reduction in Suez Canal crossings had caused a loss of $6 billion in canal toll revenue. The minister met with the Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, who also discussed the issue.

Since the Houthis began attacking commercial vessels in the Red Sea in November last year, more than 100 commercial vessels have been attacked so far, most container ships and other ship types have chosen to sail around the Cape of Good Hope. According to hiFleet Shipping Big Data, the level of ship traffic in the Suez Canal has decreased by more than 70% in the total tonnage of ships transacting through the Suez Canal compared to the average level in 2023. The number of container ships, car carriers, cruise ships and liquefied natural gas carriers passing through the Suez Canal has fallen by about 90 percent or more.

Moscow is fueling instability in the Middle East in order to downplay U.S. concerns about Ukraine. "Any conflict anywhere is good news for Russia because it will take the world's attention away from Ukraine, the US needs to invest more resources in other regions, and as the situation in the Middle East deteriorates, it is clear where the US will choose," Alexander Gabuyev, director of the Russian Eurasia Center think tank, told the Wall Street Journal.

47th Week Topic: Can't Wait for the War to End

The shipping should remember the hijacking of a ship in the Red Sea on November 19, 2023. The ship was the first large Bahamian-flagged car boat "GALAXY LEADER" hijacked by Houthi armed men in the Red Sea. According to the latest data from hiFleet, the ship is still anchored in the harbor anchorage near Kamalan Island. It's been a full year, and the crew is still suffering both mentally and physically.

According to hiFleet ship archives, the hijacked car ship was built in 2002 by the Polish shipyard Gdynia, with a length of 182 meters and a width of 32 meters, DNV classification society. There were 25 crew members from Bulgaria, the Philippines, Ukraine, Mexico and Romania on board when the ship was hijacked on November 19. The hijacking of the ship was a dramatic police operation. The Houthis used helicopters to board the ship directly and quickly took control of it. There is little hope of the hijacked sailors being released any time soon, and no sign that their fate is high on the international diplomatic agenda. A year has passed, the war has not stopped, and the crew's desire to go home cannot wait until the war is over.

On the first anniversary of the crisis in the Red Sea, the Houthis used missiles to attack a bulk carrier twice, minutes after the vessels were warned to change course. On November 18, 2024, according to HiFleet shipping big data and ship archive information, a Singapore-managed bulk carrier sailing near Yemen, the ship was sailing in the Bab el-Mandeh Strait and the Gulf of Aden when it twice passed Houthi missiles. According to the data, the ship that was attacked may have been an oversized, handy-sized Japanese-made bulk carrier.

International political rivalries and regional piracy always threaten the safety and freedom of seafarers themselves. The captain and second officer of a ship could face up to five years in prison by Ukrainian authorities for calling at a port in Russia's occupied Black Sea territory. Unlucky crew members have even lost their lives as a result of armed attacks or hijacking by pirates through risky waters.

History also remembers that in the early morning of March 6, 2024, Beijing time, Yemen's Houthi armed forces used missiles to attack the bulk carrier invested by the United States Oaktree Capital, directly resulting in the death of three crew members and serious injuries to three others;

On January 4, 2024, about 455 nautical miles southeast of Eyl, Somalia, a bulk carrier in transit picked up the pirate ship on radar. Pirates armed with machine guns and rocket launchers opened fire on the ship. The captain then sounded the alarm, activated the SSAS, and all the crew entered the ship's safety fort. Nearby Indian warships quickly responded, immediately sent a helicopter to the site, and successfully boarded the ship to sweep up the pirates. After receiving safety information, the crew emerged from the fort and regained control of the ship, which resumed its course and was grateful that all crew members were safe.

In addition to the threats posed by storms and tsunamis to the safety of ships and sailors, there are also disasters caused by piracy and armed attacks, which pose a great threat to the safety of seafarers and the freedom of navigation. Relevant international organizations should take effective measures to solve the problem of the safety of seafarers and the freedom of navigation to the greatest extent by combining various forces.

48th Week Topic: Challenges in the Exploration of New Energy for Ships

I remember senior people in the shipping industry talking about shipping innovation, the first crab in the shipping industry who dares to try to innovate often faces some uncertain risks, sometimes with great success, and more scenarios may be failure.

Not long ago, I read a news report that the Norwegian tax authority has filed a bankruptcy claim against the Marine hydrogen fuel cell development company Teco 2030. The Oslo-listed clean technology Group Teco Group said on November 14, 2024 that it had filed a petition with its subsidiary Teco 2030 Innovation Center in Novick, With a hearing scheduled for December 5, 2024, at the Garland District Court in Central Hallow, the news was greeted with concern and sighs.

Teco2030 Marine hydrogen fuel cells have attracted market attention since their launch in 2023, and there are also many good news announcements. In April 2024, Teco 2030's tank hydrogen fuel cell was approved by DNV in principle, complete power generation system management, including power management system, can be integrated into the ship's main switch board to provide clean electricity. This includes the design of the fuel preparation system, the fuel cell module storage room, the electrical technology room, the battery room, the heating, ventilation and inertia systems, and the airlock. The Oslo-listed company, majority-owned by Teco Group, has been developing clean technology systems, including hydrogen fuel cells and potential multi-gas exhaust gas purification systems. Teco 2030 has been developing hydrogen fuel cells in collaboration with AVL, an Austrian research and development company with expertise in heavy power systems. The company is also building a fuel cell production center in Narvik Harbor in northern Norway.

When Teco2030 launched its hydrogen fuel cell, it received initial attention and admiration from the market, where Enova's funding helped TECO 2030 and Norwegian engineering company Blom Maritime develop and implement the fuel cell system. If successful, it will allow certain ships to operate with zero emissions in the Norwegian fjords. In 2023, the company also has related reports that have attracted the attention of the industry, in the 400 kW FCM400 module test conducted in Graz, Austria, the battery was successfully injected with hydrogen, generating zero-emission electricity. The system will undergo further testing, with the first deployment planned for the first half of next year. In November, the company reported that it would supply hydrogen fuel cells for startup Pherousa Green Shipping's six pioneering zero-emission VLSI vessels.

Technological breakthroughs often need to be generally recognized by the market, investors who dare to try are still rare, shipowners are more concerned about whether the current fleet is profitable, whether the investment of new energy equipment will meet the good efficiency of the operation is crucial, in the market promotion stage of innovative equipment, once which link is blocked often need to pay tuition fees.

49th Week Topic: Russian Crude Oil Transportation Under International Sanctions Pressure

On November 25, 2024, the British Foreign Office announced the largest sanctions against Russian oil tankers and Russian insurance companies. In the latest sanctions against the Russian oil trade, the British government named 30 vessels and two Russian insurance companies, Alfastrakhovanie and VSK, which have been accused of supporting the shadow fleet. The EU and US have also targeted dozens of Russian companies.

The flag state of Panama has also joined controls on the shadow fleet, removing the flags of six tankers blacklisted by the UK for transporting Russian oil. The names of the vessels were not released by the Panamanian registry, but according to hiFleet shipping big Data, the British list includes eight tankers flying the flag of Panama.

The detention of an Afra Tanker from the Moscow-based Argo Tanker Group in an Indian port highlights how Russian shipowners are having trouble operating in a high-pressure sanctions environment and starting to struggle with foreign payments. The holdup occurred at the end of November when the 108,900 DWT crude oil carrier Unity (built in 2009) was seized by Guma Tech Marine Services at Mundra Port, India. Guma Tech Marine Services is a Bhavnagar based Marine service company whose main business is repairing ships and supplying Marine spare parts.

Sovcomflot, Russia's state-owned shipping company, has seen its profits and cash reserves shrink as international sanctions against Russian oil tankers deepen, but it still earns hundreds of millions of dollars from tanker and gas shipments. The company's earnings have fallen sharply so far in 2024, with the Moscow-listed owner of oil tankers and gas carriers saying it made a net profit of $505 million for the nine months ended Sept. 30, compared with $702 million for the period in 2023.

The market has always been profit-driven, and although Russia has been hit by various sanctions, the market has also secretly transferred valuable oil from Russia. According to market information, 1 million barrels of Russian oil are transferred from Greece every month. Ships typically turn off their AIS systems during ship-to-ship transfers to mask the origin of the oil on board. There are also regular ship-to-ship transfers near the port of Augusta, Italy.

According to hiFleet Shipping Big Data analysis, Russia can use nearly 600 tankers to maintain its oil exports. The share of the shadow tanker fleet in Russian oil shipments reached a record level in 2024, with more than 800 tankers of all types involved in sanctioned oil shipments worldwide, representing more than 100 million deadweight tons.