It has been more than three weeks since the Russian started the war in Ukraine. All the Ukrainian ports in Black Sea had been shut down since on, which affects the Ukrainian grains export directly. USDA forecasts an immediate reduction of 10 million tons grain exports disrupted by the war before this coming July.

• According to HiFleet real-time vessel tracking and mapping system, no merchant shipping activity is seen in Ukrainian Black Sea waters.

• HiFleet AIS tracking data analysis shows a surge of vessel leaving Black Sea when the war broke out. (Data above includes vessel of more than 10,000 DWT only)

【An Overview】

Ukraine is one of the major grains exporters, which includes wheat, maize, barley and so on. I will illustrate the major ones here: wheat and maize.

• The graph above shows the Ukraine grains and oilseeds export volume in past ten years. The country is an increasingly important role in global grains trade. International Grains Council (IGC) forecasted 80 million tones of grains and oilseeds to be exported from Ukraine in 2021/22 before the break-out of war.

• In Feb, IGC also estimated in 2021/22 the total Ukrainian Maize exports to reach 32 million tons and Wheat to 24.5 million tons, accounting 18% and 12% of global total respectively.  

【Wheat】

• From 2016 to 2021, 30% of Ukrainian wheat exports was destined to Pacific Asia and 27% to N. Africa, then 14% to NE Asia as well as S. Asia.

• Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Philippines and EU are the major importers.

• Ukrainian wheat exports concentrate on the second half of year during harvest seasons. The exports usually stay at a low level at current months.
• In February, IGC estimated that from Feb. to Jun. 2022 there are 6.6 million tons of wheat scheduled to export, most of which are from Black Sea ports.

【Maize】

• Ukraine maize production and harvested areas have increased dramatically in past decades.

• EU and China are the major export destinations. In particular, the exports to China surged in last year.
• In February, IGC estimates that from Feb. to Jun. 2022 there are 13.2 million tons of maize scheduled to export.

【Disruption by the War】

The break-out of war will affect the country’s grains trading directly from two aspects. One is the storage and transportation of harvested grains in 2021/22. Another is the seeding in new crop year. USDA has adjusted the forecast of Ukrainian wheat and maize export after the war broke out.

• It is estimated that the Ukrainian wheat export will decrease by 4 million tons comparing with the forecast in last month, which is caused by the closure of Black Sea ports amid conflict.

• Similarly, the maize export is estimated to reduce 6 million tons.

In the crop year of 2021/22, it is estimated that around 10 million tons of Ukrainian wheat and maize exports are immediately disrupted by the war. Its effect on the country’s production and export in the coming crop year are unknown at current stage.

Source：IGC，USDA.