8th Week Topic: Amazon Plans to Launch Thousands of Satellites

Market Information on February 12, 2026: Amazon is venturing into the maritime communication sector, competing with companies such as Starlink, Iridium, and Inmarsat, to secure communication service orders in the shipping industry. This American giant, renowned for its e-commerce business, has officially entered the satellite communication field. It plans to launch thousands of low Earth orbit satellites to build a space high-speed broadband network, covering two major sectors of personal and commercial communications. Maritime oil and gas development and maritime shipping are all included in its core business layout for commercial communication.

The satellite communication service launched by Amazon is called Amazon Leo. It was formerly known as the Project Kuiper during its research stage. This project planned to launch over 3,000 satellites. Currently, the actual number of satellites in orbit is approximately 140. According to Amazon's commitment, if shipowners install their exclusive hardware equipment, they can achieve an upload rate of 400 Mbps and a download rate of up to 1,000 Mbps.

On February 12th, Amazon will launch 32 more satellites into orbit via an Ariane rocket from Arianespace. This is the first of 18 launch missions between Amazon and Arianespace, and all the launches will be carried out at the European Space Center in French Guiana.

In terms of business cooperation, Amazon Leo has signed distributor agreements with Elcome Company in Dubai and MTN Company in the United States. However, neither Amazon nor its partner distributors have disclosed the prices of the related hardware equipment or the subscription fees for communication services. According to industry practice, distributors need to sign agreements with service providers, committing to completing a certain number of shipowner cooperation orders each year.

Regarding the market promotion pace of Amazon Leo, Joshua Flood from Valour Consultancy, a maritime and aviation market intelligence consulting firm, stated that Amazon is expected to complete the equipment deployment for up to 4,000 ships within 18 months. He also pointed out that Amazon is highly likely to adopt the same indirect sales model as other satellite communication companies - companies such as Starlink, Iridium, and Inmarsat all distribute their services through companies like Marlink, Speedcast, Elcome, and NSSLGlobal.

Frad also mentioned that some industry practitioners are dissatisfied with operators that adopt both direct and indirect sales models simultaneously. While Amazon, which only uses a single model, may find its service model appealing to shipowners. In terms of market competition layout, although Amazon will face direct competition with Starlink in some areas, the core positioning of Amazon Leo will focus on high-value fields, such as offshore energy development, high-end merchant ships and passenger ship communication services.

Currently, most satellite communication service providers offer a variety of value-added services, such as security protection, service package bundling, performance data panels, etc. Amazon, on the other hand, plans to integrate its satellite communication services with Amazon Web Services (AWS)'s data warehouses and cloud services in order to create a differentiated competitive advantage.

However, Vlad also admitted that Amazon's path of market expansion might face considerable challenges. The core issue lies in the fact that the cooperative distributors themselves have signed volume guarantee agreements with Amazon's competitors. Many mainstream service providers have already reached in-depth cooperation with SpaceX and International Maritime Satellite Organization, which will make it difficult for Amazon to obtain binding equipment deployment commitments. But from another perspective, these so-called communication service integrated suppliers always hope to integrate all mainstream communication solutions on the market to avoid excessive reliance on Starlink, which also brings market opportunities for Amazon.

For this reason, many industry insiders regard Amazon Leo as a knight in shining armor for the maritime satellite communication market. They believe that its entry is likely to disrupt the existing market structure and bring about a new balance to the industry

9th Week Topic: Strait of Hormuz Cut Off

On March 1, 2026, the US and Israel achieved significant tactical victories in their strikes against Iran. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was targeted and eliminated. Many senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were killed. Military command centers and communication hubs in multiple Iranian locations were precisely attacked, causing severe damage to the command system. Iran has announced a complete blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Israeli Defense Forces stated that they have destroyed over 80% of the targeted targets in Iran, including ballistic missile bases, air defense radar networks, nuclear-related facilities, and military industrial complexes. Iran's 24 provinces were attacked, and more than 220 military and civilian targets were hit, resulting in 201 deaths and 747 injuries (including a large number of civilians). Iran's air defense system was suppressed, and its air defense capabilities were significantly weakened.

According to a report by the Iranian Mehr News Agency on the 1st, the Iranian government issued a statement regarding the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, saying that they will use all their strength and determination to exact a heavy price from the enemies. The statement announced that there would be a 40-day national mourning period and public institutions would be shut down for 7 days. It can be seen that a short-term high-intensity confrontation may last for one week. The US and Israel have been conducting continuous air strikes on Iran's core targets related to nuclear, missile and air defense, attempting to completely paralyze its counterattack capabilities. Iran has launched saturation counterattacks using missiles and drones against Israel's homeland and US military bases in the Middle East, and has maintained the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. During this stage, oil prices will remain at a high level, and the global market will experience severe fluctuations.

If the internal situation in Iran does not rapidly change and evolve, there will probably be a mid-term stalemate battle lasting about one month. Both sides will engage in a tug-of-war, and the intensity of the US and Israel's strikes will decrease. Iran will continue to counterattack relying on underground fortifications and proxy forces (Hezbollah, Houthi rebels). The Strait of Hormuz may be subject to selective blockades (only prohibiting US and Israeli ships), or it may be partially opened under international pressure. The pressure from international mediation will increase, and the possibility of negotiations will rise. The confrontation will shift to proxy wars, economic sanctions, and maritime frictions. The shipping safety in the Strait of Hormuz will face long-term pressure. The conflict may last at least one month, and in extreme cases, it may extend to around three months. The possibility of a quick resolution is relatively low.

Currently, the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed. Only a very small number of ships have managed to approach the Oman end to escape from the Persian Gulf. As a result, about 30% of global maritime crude oil transportation and a large amount of LNG transportation will be forced to come to a halt. Major global oil tanker companies and traders have suspended their operations through the Strait of Hormuz.

A Palau-flagged oil tanker, 'SKYLIGHT', was attacked about 5 nautical miles northwest of the Khasab Port in Musandam Province, Oman. After the attack, all the crew members of the ship safely evacuated. It is said that 4 crew members were injured. This attack incident has exacerbated the market's panic over the safety of navigation in this area.

The freight rates for oil tankers, dry bulk cargo, and container ships are likely to increase significantly across the board, and the freight rates for some routes could double. The insurance rates for ships have soared, and the rates for war insurance and hull insurance have been significantly raised. Insurance coverage has been denied in some regions. The container shipping routes are facing a major adjustment, with major companies such as Hapag-Lloyd, CMA CGM, and Maersk suspending their Middle East routes.

It is believed that the internal situation in Iran is still evolving rapidly. The timing for the resumption of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz is difficult to predict, as it depends on the direction of the internal adjustments in Iran. Short-term risks of geopolitical conflicts persist, and the impact on global maritime shipping may only be a brief shock.

10th Week Topic: Gulf Conflict Leaves Several Seafarers Dead and Injured

On March 4, 2026, a short video circulating in Greece captured the dramatic escalation of new hostilities in the Gulf region. The footage shows a Middle Eastern port coming under a nighttime attack involving missiles and drones. The confrontation was reportedly triggered by tensions between Iran, the United States, and Israel. Seafarers aboard vessels near the area were forced to face the explosions at close range, placing their lives in serious danger.

The video, shared on a maritime platform, was reportedly filmed by a crew member on a vessel near the incident site using a mobile phone. The footage shows multiple missiles striking the port in rapid succession, with explosions occurring around vessels berthed nearby and massive fireballs rising into the air. Panicked voices of crew members can be clearly heard in the video. Some expressed anger toward the shipowners who sent them to the region, with one shouting repeatedly: “Look at what we are going through. Where have these bastards sent us?” Another crew member cried out anxiously: “We’re all going to burn alive. Get us out of here.”

The footage most likely corresponds to a missile attack launched by Iran in the early hours of March 2 targeting the port of Salman Industrial City and nearby maritime facilities at Mina Salman. The attack has been confirmed to have occurred. One Asian shipyard worker was reportedly killed. In addition, the U.S. Navy replenishment tanker Stena Imperative (built in 2016, 49,800 DWT) was struck twice and caught fire.

Beyond Bahrain, several other ports in the Middle East were also attacked, and incidents were reported near the coast of Oman. A product tanker, MKD Vyom (built in 2007, 74,000 DWT), was reportedly hit in one of the attacks, and at least one seafarer was reported killed.

The series of attacks coincided with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving a large number of seafarers stranded in the Persian Gulf. The Panhellenic Seamen's Federation has issued a strong appeal calling for the immediate evacuation of stranded crew members.

According to shipping data from HiFleet, more than 110 crude oil tankers are currently stalled in the Persian Gulf, including 73 VLCCs, accounting for approximately 8% of global VLCC capacity. As a critical global energy corridor, around 35% of the world’s seaborne crude oil exports, 20% of LNG trade, and 30% of LPG trade pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Notably, Qatar has announced a suspension of LNG production, with its exports primarily relying on Ras Laffan Port. In terms of China’s supply structure, imports from the Persian Gulf accounted for 34% of China’s seaborne crude imports, 32% of LNG imports, and 44% of LPG imports during January–February this year.

Based on available information, the full closure of the Strait of Hormuz may last for about one month, with full navigation potentially resuming in early April. Over the next two weeks, traffic is expected to remain at a reduced level. Overall, the impact on global energy markets is likely to be short-term and shock-like rather than prolonged. Under the balancing influence of various international actors, the probability of a long-term energy crisis remains low. Ultimately, diplomatic negotiations remain the key path to resolving the conflict and restoring normal navigation through the Strait.

11th Week Topic: Oil tanker carrying Iranian crude oil leaves Persian Gulf

According to the shipping big data of HIFLEET, several oil tankers and liquefied gas carriers have left Iranian ports and sailed into the Persian Gulf in the Middle East. They successfully passed through the Hormuz Strait. Since the US and Israel launched attacks on Iran on February 28th, at least five oil tankers carrying Iranian crude oil have crossed the controlled Hormuz Strait.

There are already rumors in the market suggesting that Iran plans to send naval vessels to form a convoy to escort ships out of the Persian Gulf. The anti-Iran nuclear issue organization "United Against Nuclear Iran" stated that from February 28th to March, the involved oil tankers completed their oil loading operations at the Harq Island terminal.

To make up for the shortage of oil and gas supply in the Persian Gulf region, the major oil-exporting country Saudi Arabia is increasing the volume of oil transportation via the Red Sea route. However, the current transportation scale is still far from sufficient to fill the oil and gas loss in the region. According to market estimates, the oil and gas loss in the Persian Gulf region has exceeded 100 million barrels.

Currently, hundreds of ships are still stranded near the Strait of Hormuz. The Saudi National Oil Company (Aramco) has informed some buyers to transfer to the Yanbu Port on the Red Sea coast for loading. The daily rental rate for the very large crude carriers (VLCC) at this port has reached a new high, reaching up to 770,000 US dollars.

According to data from the London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG), in the first five days of March, the oil loading volume at Yanbu Port reached 1.9 million barrels per day, an increase of approximately 60% compared to the level in February. Traders said that the oil processing capacity of Yanbu Port can reach 4.5 million barrels per day, but previously the daily loading volume rarely exceeded 2.5 million barrels. According to HIFLEET shipping data analysis, more than 10 oil tankers have confirmed that they will dock at Yanbu Port.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD, hereinafter referred to as the UNCTAD) has issued a warning regarding the impact of the ongoing conflict in the Middle East on the global economy. It states that if the Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of actual closure, the obstruction of shipping and exports will trigger a widespread and global social and economic chain reaction. The extent of its impact will depend on the duration, intensity and geographical reach of the regional tensions.

The current volume of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by 97% compared to the daily average of 129 ships before the conflict. This situation has directly led to severe fluctuations in the global energy market, with the price of natural gas soaring by 74% and the price of crude oil rising by 27%.

The Strait of Hormuz also holds a central position in global fertilizer trade. In 2024, the total amount of fertilizers exported through this strait reached 16 million tons, accounting for one-third of the global fertilizer trade volume. Among the fertilizers exported from the Gulf region, urea accounted for as high as 67%. The price of urea is directly linked to the price of natural gas, and the soaring energy prices will also be transmitted to the fertilizer industry.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development has issued a stern warning on this matter. The export restrictions caused by the closure of the strait will significantly reduce the accessibility of global fertilizers, and developing countries will be particularly affected by this. The agency also pointed out that past experience has fully demonstrated that there is a direct correlation between food and fertilizer prices and oil and gas prices. During previous periods of local conflicts in the Middle East, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, there were simultaneous surges in oil, food, and fertilizer prices.

Overall, the series of chain reactions triggered by the disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz will cause more severe social and economic impacts on developing countries. The pressure brought about by rising freight costs and the increase in prices of various goods will be particularly prominent in these countries.

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12nd Week Topic: Recommended Shipping Routes and Ship Diversion

HIFLEET's weather routing service recently received inquiries from the market regarding its vessels' voyage from the South China Sea to Jakarta, Indonesia. The vessels did not choose the shorter GELASA Strait but instead followed the recommended sea route by ASL. After multiple attempts at communication, no solution was reached. The vessels still insisted on following the ASL route. As a result, they had to travel an extra 230 nautical miles. The charterer asked if they could claim compensation. The recommended route by ASL (Indonesian Archipelago Sea Route) is not mandatory, but the captain has the right to choose this route based on safety considerations. Whether the charterer can claim compensation mainly depends on whether the contract terms and the detour are reasonable.

The ASL is officially known as Archipelagic Sea Lanes. It is a recommended shipping passage route delineated by Indonesia in accordance with Article 53 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and approved by the IMO. The legal status of the ASL is advisory rather than mandatory. Ships have the right to pass through the archipelagic sea lanes and can choose the ASL or other customary/geographical routes (such as the Gelasa Strait)， as long as they do not violate navigation safety and local maritime regulations. The captain's choice is based on the principle of safety first， and the captain has the final decision-making power over the route. If the ASL is safer (such as avoiding shoals， adverse weather conditions， pirate areas， or military activity zones)， the captain can prioritize its selection.

Charter voyage (such as GENCON): The shipowner or carrier is obligated to navigate along the agreed/established/geographical route, except for reasonable detours (such as for safety, rescue purposes). Under time charter contracts (such as NYPE), the charterer usually issues vessel operation instructions, but must not violate safety; the captain has the final decision on safe navigation.

Returning to the topic of the recommended ASL route, if the captain chooses the ASL based on safety considerations (such as insufficient water depth, high navigation density, and potential navigation risks in the Gelasa Strait), it is considered a reasonable detour. The shipowner will not bear any liability for breach of contract. Only when the shipowner or the captain make an arbitrary choice of the route without any valid reason and it constitutes an unreasonable detour, can the lessee make a claim.

The prerequisite for successful claim is that the lease contract has a clear stipulation. The contract states that the economic route must be taken and there should be no safety risks. Without reasonable safety grounds, such as when the captain chooses a certain route not for safety, rescue or obstacle avoidance, but merely for the benefit of the shipowner (such as refueling, berthing, crew rotation). If the detour causes actual losses, the charterer will incur quantifiable losses due to the additional voyage (fuel costs, time loss, demurrage, compensation for breach of contract to the downstream party, etc.).

The Chinese Maritime Code has provisions stating that ships must navigate along the agreed, customary or geographical routes. Unreasonable detours are prohibited, and such detours constitute a breach of contract, entitling the aggrieved party to claim compensation for losses. The charterer is responsible for ensuring the safety of the navigation area and has the authority to issue operational instructions; the captain must comply, but safety comes first. Common law / The Hague-Visby Rules: Unreasonable detours constitute a fundamental breach of contract, and the shipowner loses the limitation of liability, and must make full compensation.

The lease contract can clearly stipulate that the captain shall not be allowed to deviate from the original route at will. Only reasonable deviations such as for safety or rescue purposes are permitted. Include an air-guidance clause, stipulating that the captain should follow the optimal route suggestions provided by the designated air-guidance company by the lessor, and shall not deviate without valid reasons.

During the voyage, the vessel needs to have its trajectory tracked in real time and assist the captain in avoiding unnecessary detours. If there is a deviation, an immediate written inquiry should be made to the captain, requesting an explanation of the safety reasons and retaining the evidence. If the captain is unable to provide a reasonable safety basis, a written notice should be sent to the shipowner: requesting an immediate return to the agreed route and retaining the right to claim compensation.

If a ship undergoes a detour, the first step is usually to negotiate: provide evidence and demand that the shipowner bear the additional fuel costs, time losses and demurrage fees. If the negotiation fails, submit the matter to arbitration (either the London Maritime Arbitration Association LMAA or the China Maritime Arbitration) or litigation in accordance with the contract terms.

13th Week Topic: Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Tariff Order

On February 21, 2026, the US Supreme Court released a relevant ruling in the early morning. With a vote of 6 in favor and 3 against, it was determined that Trump's unilateral imposition of tariffs on various countries based on the "International Emergency Economic Powers Act" did not fall within the scope of the powers granted to the president by the law. Therefore, this tariff policy was declared invalid. It is notable that in this vote, the majority of the justices appointed by Trump also expressed opposition to his exercise of tariff powers. Trump expressed disappointment and stated that he would continue the tariff-driven trade policy through other legal means, and soon ordered the imposition of a 15% global tariff.

The Trump administration released the announcement related to the Day of Liberation tariffs in April 2025, launching this extensive global tariff policy. This policy covered the trade relations between the United States and various trading partners and also caused considerable impact on the global core shipping market. However, this time, the Supreme Court's ruling directly overturned this policy. In response to the Supreme Court's decision, the Trump administration stated that they would abide by this ruling, but at the same time, they clearly stated that they would continue to implement the tariff policy using other legal methods. This policy adjustment, combined with the impact of previous tariff policies, will have multiple impacts on the global shipping market in terms of short-term market fluctuations, medium- and long-term trade pattern reconstruction, and changes in industry business logic. It will also promote strategic adjustments and route reconfiguration in the shipping industry.

Although the short-term fluctuations in tariff policies once provided shipping companies with temporary tariff benefits, the long-term decline in demand brought about by the new tariffs, combined with the impact of excess capacity, will lead to a significant drop in the profitability of the shipping industry. The British Drewry Shipping Consulting Company has predicted that the shipping industry will face a challenging year in 2026, while HSBC has even predicted that the global shipping demand will grow at an average annual rate of only 2% from 2026 to 2027, much lower than the previous 6%. The profit margins of shipping companies will be significantly compressed.

The continuous tightening of the US tariff policy has made shipping companies realize the risks of over-reliance on the US market. Leading companies have begun to accelerate the transfer of their shipping capacity from the trans-Pacific routes to emerging markets such as Europe, Latin America, Africa, and Southeast Asia. For instance, Mediterranean Shipping Company has added new routes from China to Peru and West Africa, Maersk has established a logistics center in Panama and increased its Latin American routes, and major Chinese ports have also added dozens of international routes pointing to Latin America and Africa by 2025. The core shipping routes around the world are shifting from being centered on the US to a more balanced multi-region approach.

The new tariffs have led to the reconfiguration of global supply chains. In response to reducing their reliance on the US market, various countries have begun to strengthen trade cooperation within their regions, which has resulted in a rapid growth in short-distance shipping demand within these regions. For instance, the container throughput of routes between China and the countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative increased by 23.7% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, becoming the main driving force behind the growth of foreign trade containers. Meanwhile, regional trade routes within Europe and the ASEAN region have also become the focus of competition among shipping companies.

The erratic tariff policies of the Trump administration (from being rejected by the Supreme Court to raising tariffs from 10% to 15% within 24 hours) have made global shipping companies unable to make long-term predictions regarding market demand and freight rates. The executive director of the Port of Los Angeles stated that the six-month planning of American supply chain enterprises has become meaningless, and shipping companies' ship ordering and capacity allocation require long-term planning. The uncertainty of policies will directly lead to conservative business decisions by enterprises and cause the industry to be in a passive state.

14th Week Topic: Staggered Resumption of Navigation in the Strait of Hormuz

Based on the comprehensive analysis of HIFLEET shipping data, as of early April 2026, the Strait of Hormuz is moving from the actual blockade in March into a stage of limited, graded, and gradual resumption of traffic. The overall trend shows a gradual easing in the short term to a substantial recovery in the medium term, and eventually develops into a stepwise warming-up of vessel traffic, but it is difficult to quickly return to the completely free navigation state before the conflict.

In terms of vessel navigation data, the current situation is transitioning from complete ice blockage to partial ice breaking. During the peak conflict period in mid-March, the navigation volume dropped by 95% to 97%, and sometimes there were even zero navigations on a single day. As of the latest developments in early April, three large vessels (two VLCCs and one LNG ship) of the Oman nationality successfully sailed out of the Persian Gulf via the South Route (Oman side), marking the first time since the conflict began. The Japanese shipping company Mitsui LNG ship successfully passed through the strait, and 45 stranded Japanese ships began to move. Iran began to allow passage by country, such as countries that are not hostile, like the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand, Oman, and Japan. The weekly navigation volume has rebounded to 5% to 10% of the normal level, still being a limited passage under strict control.

Currently, the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, following a tiered access system. It is classified into five levels based on friendliness: American and Israeli ships are completely prohibited; European, Japanese, Korean, and neutral country ships require approval, escort, and payment. The navigation route is managed, and it is limited to the Iranian waters on the north side. Iran conducts unified management. The basic process is as follows: background review, payment, issuance of passage code, and guidance by Iranian patrol boats.

Led by the UK and France (with the US absent), a 40-nation joint diplomatic effort on April 2 put pressure on the issue, emphasizing freedom of navigation, refusing to pay tolls, and advocating unconditional openness. Macron clearly stated that military action is not feasible; instead, it relies on diplomacy combined with sanctions to exert pressure.

Market forecast: From April to June 2026, the passage of ships through the strait is expected to be in a stage of limited expansion and graded release. The global energy crisis should be somewhat alleviated. Iran will expand the list of neutral countries, and the control of ships will improve the release efficiency, and the passage of ships through the strait will return to 30%-40% of normal levels. From June to September 2026, the strait may be substantially restored, and the passage of ships through the strait will return to 60%-80%, approaching normal levels. Global energy inflation has forced a halt and a ceasefire agreement has been reached. Iran will fully open the shipping lanes, with only routine inspections retained. Large oil tankers and cargo ships will return in batches, and freight rates and insurance will significantly decrease. After October 2026, the normal operation of ship passage through the Strait will be regulated jointly by Iran and Oman through the maritime organization as a permanent mechanism. The transportation capacity of the Saudi East-West Pipeline, the Red Sea Yanbu Port, and the United Arab Emirates Fujairah will be enhanced, and the high inventory strategies of oil-importing countries will become regular.

The months-long closure and control of the Strait of Hormuz have had a profound impact on the world's energy and financial markets. The international situation has undergone significant changes, and various regional powers or alliances will re-examine the new international landscape. The Strait of Hormuz will definitely reopen, but it will never return to the low-cost, free passage status of the past.

15th Week Topic: Development of Intelligent Shipping

With artificial intelligence, big data, the Internet of Things, and automatic control at its core, achieving a modern shipping model featuring autonomous navigation, intelligent scheduling, remote monitoring, and unmanned operations is an important direction for the global future intelligent shipping industry to develop in a low-carbon and efficient manner.

On March 25, 2026, a domestic roll-on/roll-off vessel of K Line, a Japanese shipping company, was officially approved to become an autonomous vessel. The ship passed the certification of the Japanese Classification Society (NK) and completed the inspection by the Japanese Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, obtaining the permission for autonomous operation.

The latest "2030 Development Roadmap for Smart Shipping" released by China has proposed that over 100 intelligent ships will be put into service by 2027, which has drawn great attention from the global shipping industry. According to relevant research institutions and industry insiders in Shanghai, this plan marks a shift from the scattered pilot stage to a coordinated and large-scale deployment of smart shipping in China, representing a systematic strategic upgrade. However, there are still bottlenecks that need to be overcome in terms of regulatory rules and implementation standards.

At present, global intelligent shipping is still in the early stage of large-scale implementation, and it mainly faces seven core challenges: technology, regulations, standards, cost, safety, talent, and collaboration. The core technical bottlenecks have not yet been overcome. For instance, the reliability in complex scenarios is insufficient. In low visibility/high-risk scenarios such as rain, fog, night, narrow waterways, and harsh sea conditions, the stability of perception, collision avoidance, and decision-making algorithms is inadequate, and there is still a gap from full autonomy. Facing various risks at sea, the reliability of key equipment and chips for intelligent shipping still needs to be continuously improved and with reasonable costs.

The regulatory and liability systems for intelligent shipping are seriously lagging behind. The IMO's autonomous vessel regulatory framework has not been fully implemented. There are significant differences in certification, responsibility determination, insurance, and accident accountability standards among various countries. The regulatory adaptation is insufficient. Traditional maritime supervision is oriented towards manned vessels, lacking corresponding procedures for remote control, autonomous decision-making, data retention, and emergency takeover.

Intelligent shipping has high investment costs and a long return period. The investment for building or modifying intelligent ships, as well as for perception and computing systems, and the shore-based control center is huge, making it unaffordable for small and medium-sized enterprises. Investments in smart waterways, automated terminals, Beidou/5G coverage, and new energy refueling stations are large and have long recovery periods. Continuous investment in system operation and maintenance, network security, algorithm iteration, and redundancy backup results in no obvious short-term benefits.

The intelligent shipping network faces prominent risks in terms of data security. Intelligent ships are highly interconnected, making them vulnerable to hacking, alteration of routes, and system failures, which directly threaten navigation safety. There is a significant compliance pressure for the cross-border transmission and storage of sensitive data such as navigation, cargo, business, and location information. The emergency takeover and safety fallback mechanisms in case of communication interruption or system failure are not well-developed.

There is a severe shortage of comprehensive talents in the field of intelligent shipping. There is a global shortage of talents who are proficient in both maritime business and AI, algorithms, cybersecurity, and data engineering. The traditional crew skills do not match the requirements of intelligent ships, remote control, and system operation and maintenance. The re-employment and training systems are lagging behind. There is a mismatch between the demands of universities, research institutions, and port and shipping enterprises, and the efficiency is low.

The intelligent shipping ecosystem is not yet mature. There is a lack of coordination among ships, ports, navigation and cargo. Information exchange is not smooth, processes do not connect, and intelligent ships cannot efficiently interact with intelligent ports and smart waterways. The business model is unclear, and the supporting ecosystem for operations, maintenance, data services, insurance, and finance is not complete. It is difficult to replicate on a market scale. Regional development is unbalanced. There are significant differences in infrastructure and technical levels between inland waterways and ocean shipping, as well as between developed and developing countries. Large-scale promotion is hindered.

The core bottleneck of intelligent shipping does not lie in a single technology, but in system engineering. Reliable technology, sound regulations, unified standards, controllable costs, safety and trustworthiness, sufficient talent, and ecological collaboration are all indispensable. The next 3-5 years will remain a critical period for rule improvement, technology iteration, and ecological construction.

16th Week Topic: Another Twist in Ship Passage Through Iran's Strait of Hormuz

On April 18, 2026 at 22:56, it was reported that Iran has made several adjustments to its navigation policies for the Strait of Hormuz recently, with its stance showing significant fluctuations, ranging from a brief opening to a re-closure. This has profoundly affected the shipping traffic order of this globally crucial waterway, reflecting the complex changes in the US-Iran rivalry and the regional situation.

The sequence of events can be clearly organized into three key points. On April 17th, coinciding with the 10-day temporary ceasefire agreement reached between Lebanon and Israel coming into effect, Iranian Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi announced that during the ceasefire period, the Strait of Hormuz would implement measures to ease navigation restrictions, allowing all merchant ships to pass through. However, three conditions were clearly set - only civilian merchant ships were permitted, they had to follow the designated routes specified by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, and prior coordination with the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy was required. Military vessels and those related to hostile forces were still prohibited from passing through. This move broke the nearly stagnant situation of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Israel launched military strikes against Iran on February 28th. Previously, the daily traffic volume through the strait had dropped sharply from about 125 ships before the war to single digits.

After the policy was relaxed, the vessel traffic volume in the Strait of Hormuz rapidly increased. According to the statistics of HIFLEET on vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, on April 18th, the number of vessels passing through the strait reached the highest level since the outbreak of the US-Iraq war. Among them, 25 vessels left the strait and 19 vessels entered the Persian Gulf. This was the first sign of large-scale vessel traffic since the conflict began. However, it is worth noting that about 20 ships had attempted to enter the strait on the evening of the 17th, but most of them turned back due to unclear routes, threats from mines, and other concerns, demonstrating the cautious attitude of the shipping industry towards Iran's navigation policy.

However, this brief period of openness did not last. Later that evening on April 18th, Iran suddenly changed its stance and re-announced the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, restoring strict control over this strategic passage. Previously, the Iranian side had repeatedly warned that if the United States continued to maintain the blockade of Iran's maritime trade, it would regard it as a violation of the ceasefire agreement and take countermeasures. This re-blocking was a response to the US's refusal to lift the blockade - although Trump had tweeted after Iran announced the opening of the strait, he simultaneously reaffirmed that the maritime blockade against Iran would remain in effect until a comprehensive agreement was reached between the US and Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps of Iran and the highest security agency issued a joint statement, clearly stating that Iran would temporarily close the key passage of the Strait of Hormuz, prohibiting all ships from passing through, until the US lifts the blockade on Iran's maritime trade; even if the US lifts the blockade in the future, Iran would only allow limited and strictly controlled passage, and all transit ships would need to pay a passage fee and undergo comprehensive inspections until a comprehensive and final solution to the conflict is reached.

The brief recovery in vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has not changed the vulnerability of the navigation situation in this region. Iran's navigation policy has always served its core demands in the US game, while the US's blockade stance, the cautious attitude of the shipping industry, and the uncertainty of the regional situation will lead to the vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remaining in a fluctuating and strictly controlled state for the next period of time. Its subsequent trend needs to be closely monitored by the progress of the US-Iran negotiations and the implementation of the ceasefire in Lebanon-Israel.

17th Week Topic: The Trump Administration Establishes a New U.S. Maritime Administration

Stephen Carmel, the director of the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD), is committed to transforming the 76-year-old maritime administration with a new perspective, planning the future of U.S. shipping from a fresh viewpoint, and promoting the establishment of a "new maritime administration", enabling the institution to undergo a transformation towards a forward-looking direction. Against the backdrop of the Trump administration's efforts to revitalize the U.S. shipbuilding and shipping industry, Carmel believes that within the existing system, competing with the dominant China makes no sense. The United States needs to break away from the established rules and reshape the development paradigm of shipping.

Carmel argued that no maritime power has risen through competition within the framework of an existing system imposed by other countries. True dominance comes from completely reforming the existing system. To support this claim with a classic case from the history of shipping, in 1818, the fixed schedule system for the Black Ball Line was established, laying the foundation for liner shipping; in 1819, the "SS Savannah" became the first transatlantic steam-powered vessel, ushering in a new era in navigation technology. These two transformations enabled the United States to maintain a dominant position in global shipping for the next 40 years.

When asked about the core direction of the shipping system reform, Carmel directly listed small modular nuclear power (SMR) as the preferred solution. The application of small modular nuclear reactors in the shipping sector does not have significant technical obstacles; the cost per ship is relatively high, but when a large-scale operation network of 7-8 ships is established, it can eliminate daily fuel costs, increase speed, complete the same amount of freight with fewer ships, and cause the overall network operation costs to decrease exponentially, achieving a return on investment.

The transformative value of nuclear-powered shipping is comparable to the disruption caused by steam power in the shipping industry in the 19th century. Currently, China is also developing nuclear-powered merchant ships. The essence of the nuclear-powered competition lies in the contest for the right to set standards. The first to make a move will gain control of the global shipping rules.

Carmel pointed out that the current maritime policy of the United States is overly focused on shipbuilding but neglects the issue of supply security - only by ensuring that new ships have a stable demand for cargo transportation can a commercial order logic be formed. The freight preference laws are a tradition of the United States since its founding, predating the "1920 Jones Act". The core mission of the US merchant fleet is to carry goods for domestic trade, and short-term government subsidies cannot support the long-term expansion of the US-flagged fleets in the international market.

The Trump administration once issued the "Restoring America's Maritime Dominance" executive order. In February 2025, the White House also launched the "Maritime Action Plan", proposing new US maritime preferential requirements and mandating that countries with high export volumes gradually increase the proportion of goods transported by American ships. This policy is currently in the stage of federal cross-departmental review. The policy will adopt a carrot-and-stick combination model, with incentives being the main approach and constraints being the secondary one, in order to encourage shippers to choose American ships.

Carmel is a senior executive in the shipping industry. He has worked for the Danish Maersk's US shipping division and the US-based maritime finance company Maritime Partners. He is the director of the US Maritime Administration with the most extensive commercial shipping experience in recent years, and his nomination has received widespread support from the US shipping industry.

18th Week Topic: Digitalization of Maritime Shipping

The fragmentation of current digital trading platforms is the main obstacle to the large-scale application of electronic bills of lading (eBL), and the operational measures for platform mutual recognition will become a key breakthrough to accelerate the digitalization of trade. Over the past decade, numerous electronic bill of lading platforms have emerged globally, all claiming to be able to achieve process acceleration, cost reduction, and security improvement. However, the full industry-wide popularization of electronic bills of lading remains uneven. The core problem lies in the fragmentation and dispersion of digital trading platforms. Most platforms are independent and closed systems, making it difficult to achieve cross-platform data interoperability.

In actual business operations, when a carrier issues an electronic bill of lading on a certain platform, they often encounter situations where the consignee, consignor, or financing bank uses another platform. Due to the lack of cross-platform interaction functionality, trading partners can only return paper documents or adopt a compromise solution, which seriously slows down the digital transformation of the shipping industry.

The fragmentation of platforms has brought multiple operational inefficiencies to the maritime supply chain: delays in the circulation of electronic bills of lading, resulting in bottlenecks for timely cargo release; additional costs arising from manual verification and document delivery; risks of fraud and document tampering; legal uncertainties regarding cross-border jurisdiction; and slow document circulation leading to delayed cash flow. Solving these problems cannot be achieved simply by digitizing the documents; the core lies in realizing seamless collaborative operation among different digital platforms. Relying on a mutually recognized operation platform, trading participants can achieve: generation and sharing of electronic trade documents; cross-platform completion of document ownership transfer; independent verification of document authenticity; and ensuring a clear and trustworthy process for the transfer of goods rights.

For the maritime shipping industry, cross-platform interoperability is of utmost importance. Shippers, traders, banks and logistics providers operate on different platforms. It is neither feasible nor the best solution to mandate the entire industry to use a single platform uniformly.

On January 20, 2026, the world's first end-to-end interoperable payment and delivery digital trade transaction between Africa, Singapore and China was successfully completed. This project is based on the cooperation memorandum signed by IMDA and the Beijing "Two Zones" Office in 2023, aiming to deepen digital trade cooperation.

The transaction was jointly participated by Xinzhongqiao Logistics and Trade Co., Ltd. and Jiangxi Copper Industry. Taiping Shipping Company transported approximately 5 million US dollars' worth of copper concentrate from South Africa to China. The project relied on the digital trade platform and utilized the framework to achieve mutual recognition of operations. The electronic bills of lading were issued and processed by DBS Bank, OCBC Bank and Bank of China.

This transaction has fully demonstrated the value of interoperability in digital trade processes: cross-platform electronic bill exchange and verification have significantly accelerated the process, reducing the cargo rights transfer cycle from approximately 20 days in the traditional paper-based process to just 5 days. The document processing time has been shortened to minutes, shipping costs have decreased, and the error rate of document processing has dropped by 93%.

With the support of the local government in China, this project has demonstrated that interoperable digital trade infrastructure can enhance the efficiency, security and transparency of cross-border trade, providing a model for international collaboration. At the same time, the encryption QR code or the verification function on the platform can effectively prevent fraud risks from a technical perspective.

Global trade is continuously evolving, and secure and interoperable digital trade documents will become the core support for enhancing supply chain efficiency, transparency and resilience. On the premise of ensuring the trust of trading partners, the interconnection of existing platforms should be achieved. For the shipping industry, breaking through the platform interoperability is the key to realizing the full popularization of electronic bills of lading.

19th Week Topic: Hong Kong’s Cargo Volume Continues to Decline

The Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPH Trust) stated that the core container hub port in Hong Kong is currently experiencing a structural decline and a continuous decline in cargo volume. This trend has further deteriorated after the pandemic due to changes in trade patterns and intensified regional competition.

The Singapore-listed trust stated in a recent April document that the cargo volume at its Kwai Chung Wharf in Hong Kong has been on a downward trend since 2018, and the decline has intensified after the pandemic. The document responded to inquiries from the Singapore Securities Investors Association regarding the company's 2025 annual report, and the related issues were also deliberated at the annual general meeting on April 29.

The trends of Hong Kong and Shenzhen Yantian Port are diverging. Kwai Tsing Terminal is under pressure, and the decline in cargo volume is mainly due to the fact that shippers are more inclined to directly rely on mainland ports. At the same time, Hong Kong ports are impacted by competition from surrounding ports in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Hutchison Port Trust denies that the Hong Kong Port Alliance's arrangement has distorted the cargo volume, stating that the decline is caused by the overall market environment rather than the internal distribution mechanism. However, they are currently studying alternative strategic plans for the alliance. Even though the cargo volume has declined, Kwai Tsing Terminal has maintained a positive EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) through cost optimization and operational efficiency measures, such as flexible allocation of cranes and manpower. The management still relies on Hong Kong's free port status and positions it as an international transshipment port and a "catch-up port", helping shipping companies ensure their schedules.

The Shenzhen Yantian Port in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area has been continuously expanding. In recent years, the Yantian Port has maintained a strong growth rate. In 2025, it broke the throughput record for the second consecutive year, exceeding 16.1 million standard containers. The first phase of the Yantian East Port area construction is advancing steadily. The first berth is expected to be put into operation in 2027, with an initial annual capacity of 1 million standard containers. After the project is completed, three automated berths will be added, with a total capacity of 3 million standard containers, consolidating its position as a hub for super-large vessels.

The collaborative and upgrading measures within the Greater Bay Area, through the deepening of cross-border customs clearance facilitation between Shenzhen and Hong Kong, and the joint transshipment business with the Shenzhen Port Group, have enhanced the resource integration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, improved the connectivity of the logistics network between Hong Kong and the mainland, and are expected to extend to the ports in the central and western regions of the mainland in the future. Meanwhile, Hutchison Port Holdings has increased investment in automation and low-carbonization, including self-driving electric trucks, remotely controlled cranes, and artificial intelligence operation applications, to enhance its core competitiveness.

The turmoil in the Middle East has affected oil tanker transportation, but it has not yet impacted container cargo volume. If long-term unstable factors such as the blockade of the Hormuz Strait persist, it will increase fuel costs, disrupt schedules, suppress global demand, and in the long run, increase operating expenses and squeeze profits. Hutchison Port Holdings stated that it will continue to monitor the situation and focus on operational efficiency and financial stability.

20th Week Topic: The Norovirus Outbreak on Cruise Ship Ambition

Recall that since the cruise industry announced the resumption of operations in July 2021, it has been nearly five years up to now. Recently, the norovirus outbreak on the Ambition cruise ship once again attracted worldwide attention. The latest situation is that on May 14th, the British Ambassador Cruise Line Company reported that their Ambition cruise ship (built in 1999) carried 1,233 passengers and 514 crew members. During the 14-day Western European voyage, there were multiple cases of acute gastroenteritis. The ship was temporarily restricted from accepting passengers in Bordeaux, France, and laboratory tests confirmed a viral gastroenteritis outbreak on board. Currently, the cruise ship has been lifted from control and can resume normal operations.

The discovery of the norovirus occurred on the evening of May 12, 2026. After the British Ambition cruise ship docked in Bordeaux, France, there was a cluster of gastrointestinal discomfort symptoms; on May 13, the French health department officially confirmed the presence of the norovirus through laboratory tests. The involved vessel was the Ambition, a ship under the British Ambassador Cruise Line, with a total tonnage of 48,100 tons, built in 1999. At the time of the incident, it was carrying 1,233 passengers and 514 crew members, totaling approximately 1,700 people.

Initially, the vessel had implemented temporary control measures. At the beginning of its arrival at the port, all crew members were prohibited from disembarking to prevent the spread of the virus to the land. Those with symptoms were isolated on board and received medical treatment; those without symptoms were restricted from disembarking or were required to undergo quarantine and observation after disembarking. Later, the disembarkation restrictions were gradually lifted. Frequent cleaning and disinfection of high-contact surfaces were strengthened, and hygiene standards for catering and public areas were upgraded. A medical team from France boarded the vessel to assess the situation, and Bordeaux University Hospital completed the pathogen confirmation. The shore trip in Bordeaux was cancelled, and the decision on whether to continue the voyage was made based on medical assessment.

According to authoritative analysis, the norovirus is a common seasonal intestinal pathogen with low pathogenicity and mortality rate, and it has no ability to cause large-scale severe epidemics. This virus is associated with clustered outbreaks. It is prone to occur in high-density and enclosed places such as cruise ships, schools, and nursing homes where there are frequent and concentrated gatherings of people. On average, there are 5 to 8 clustered outbreaks of norovirus per year on global cruise ships, and the infection rate on individual ships is mostly between 1% and 5%, which is a routine risk in the industry.

The sudden outbreak of norovirus has led to delays, itinerary cancellations, compensation for passengers, and increased costs for individual voyages. Temporary port control may also cause pressure on route scheduling. This has forced the strengthening of hygiene protocols (disinfection, ventilation, meal distribution, health monitoring, rapid response), which have become standard investments. Short-term fluctuations in the plans for passengers' cruise trips have occurred, but this does not change the trend of industry recovery. Norovirus is a controllable routine health risk for cruise ships and does not pose a systemic impact.

21st Week Topic: Green Shipping Technology

Shipping market information Berge Bulk has shifted the rigid sail and wind wing sails from the technical verification stage to practical ship application and regular operation. During the operation phase, shipowners are more concerned about how the crew operates the sails and combine route optimization to achieve coordinated optimization for the commercial operation of the vessels, in order to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction for the company. The 211,200 deadweight Capesize bulk carrier Berge Olympus (built in 2018) under the company's portfolio is the first large bulk carrier in the shipping industry to complete the modification of rigid sail and wind wing sails and put them into commercial operation. This marks the entry of wind-assisted navigation technology into the daily operation and maintenance stage of ships.

The current market's available technologies for improving energy efficiency and reducing pollution of ships can be introduced from several aspects such as auxiliary propulsion systems, low-carbon fuels, hull and energy efficiency optimization, emission control and carbon management.

In the wind-assisted propulsion technology, there are rigid wing sails, which are suitable for large bulk carriers and oil tankers, as well as long-distance routes. These sails are 20 to 37 meters in height, automatically adjust direction, and can be adapted for both new and old ships. On regular routes, fuel consumption is reduced by 10% to 30%. With a single sail, daily fuel savings are 0.7 to 1.5 tons, and annual CO₂ emissions reduction is approximately 500 tons or more. These sails have already been installed on a large scale and are entering regular operation. Another type is the rotor sail, which utilizes the Magnus effect and has a simple structure and high reliability. Fuel consumption is reduced by 8% to 15%, and it is suitable for small and medium-sized bulk carriers and oil tankers.

Low-carbon or zero-carbon fuels as power sources. LNG dual-fuel is the most mature transitional solution, accounting for the highest proportion of new ship orders, with a substitution rate exceeding 75%. CO₂ emissions are reduced by 15% to 20%, NOₓ emissions are reduced by 85%, and sulfur and particulate emissions are reduced by nearly 100%. Green methanol is in liquid form at room temperature, convenient for storage and transportation, suitable for retrofitting existing engines, and is a mainstream option for new ocean-going ships. The supply chain of green methanol still needs to be improved and developed. Green ammonia is a zero-carbon and carbon-free option for the ocean-going sector, entering actual ship verification and small-scale application in 2026. It has high requirements for transportation and storage. Hydrogen fuel cells / lithium batteries are zero-emission, suitable for inland rivers / ports / short-distance transportation, with limited range and high costs. Biofuels (bio-diesel, BioLNG) are compatible with existing equipment, reducing emissions by 30% to 60%, and some can achieve negative carbon emissions. They are a limited response to European and American fuel regulations.

Ship body and energy efficiency optimization technology. Air lubrication system (Air Lubrication), air bubble drag reduction in the ship, up to 10% to 20% fuel savings for large ships, friendly for retrofitting. Energy-saving attachments (rudder balls, vortex elimination fins, front-mounted conduits), low cost, high return, fuel savings of 3% to 8%, preferred for existing ships. Low-resistance coating / lightweight ship body, drag reduction + weight reduction, comprehensive fuel savings of 5% to 12%, standard feature for new ships, silicone is one of the options. AI routes and energy consumption management, intelligent loading, weather routes, engine optimization, fuel savings of 5% to 15%, quick results.

Emission control and carbon management. Shipborne carbon capture (OCCS), which captures CO₂ from the exhaust of the main engine, with a capture rate of 70% to 90%, is in the pilot stage. Exhaust gas desulfurization/denitrification (EGC/SCR), meeting IMO Tier III standards, is a compliance necessity and is widely adopted on existing ships. Methane capture/utilization, for LNG ships and oil and gas vessels, reduces fugitive emissions.

Energy-saving and clean technologies have formed a three-tier system of energy efficiency improvement, fuel substitution, and intelligent management. LNG dual-fuel is the absolute mainstream in the market; wind power assistance, methanol, ammonia, and carbon capture are rapidly emerging; AI management and real ship testing have become the key focuses of technological management.